阁下，尊敬的各位来宾，女士们，先生们：
我要感谢你们世界政策研究所提供我分享，围绕泰国将如何经过一段时间的过渡和转变的做它的方式经济，区域和全球影响的旋转挑战我的想法的机会。
我们都知道，在二十一世纪任何社会可以承受任何形式的“进步”，在人民的福祉，而不至少有两个基本的基础：
一是政治稳定。二是创造经济活动，使增长和准备改变其创造力，以维持财富的能力。
女士们先生们，
让我告诉你这两个城市，这不是狄更斯写的故事。这是华盛顿和北京的平行进步的故事。每个人都有自己的历史，痛苦和厌恶。随着岁月的流逝，这两个城市都被视为其提供竞争增长和繁荣车型的竞争对手。
一个是自由市场资本主义的所谓“开放民主”作为其经济模型的基础。另一种是国家主导的资本主义与一方当事人向中央控制系统。
这两种型号的已被证明是成功的从过去到现在一个非常戏剧性的方式。承认中国的模型拟合态度的国家当时的领导层的变化，并行与经济模式在西方的变化，其中“自由贸易”的定义有利于从接近中国的档位市场上半开放的市场。
但是，我们也必须承认，这两款车型现在不得不自己适应新的现实; 在速度和技术上为工业生产性质发生巨大变化的现实; 从“一个国家为基础的产品”向“全球设计，全球采购和全球生产网络只是一个产品”的转变。这个非同寻常的变化颠覆了“正常”的内部经济国家的调整并使其很难找到一个简单的经济调整。
我们必须认识到，在推进财富管理技术和工艺也颠覆资本和生产变化之间的正常联系。但是，我们可能同意，在目前这个所谓的“新常态”的生存一个共同的威胁，要么是你必须改变的能力和意愿，或者你没有。泰国，像其他国家一样，不能从这个新标准在国际范围内脱身。
女士们，先生们，
在中国有一个贫穷的英语老师谁飙升到世界上最富有的人的名单的故事。他既不建一个大工厂，也没有投资任何生产设施。但是，支付他的服务人干脆将达到供应和需求的网络是一个规模宏大。我相信，他一定会感到谢谢你到互联网。
女士们，先生们，
在一片全球经济放缓，贸易格局发生了变化显著。由于信息技术基础设施和人口不断增加是谁能够访问互联网的数量的发展，电子商务已经成为一个新的引擎，维持对发达国家和发展中国家的经济增长。据贸发会议去年的报告指出，全球企业对企业（B2B）电子商务在2013年价值超过15万亿美元$。虽然全球企业对消费者（B2C）电子商务仍占大约$ 1.2万亿美元，这一细分市场的增长以迅猛的速度; 特别是在B2C段预计将激增20至2013年间，至2018年37％，由于跨境电子商务贸易的增量增长的亚洲和大洋洲地区，小包及包裹的国际邮递已经由48上升％，至2014年全球2011间。
对于这两个亚洲和西方，我相信这些数字为我们提供线索，为新的增长机会，其中“网络接入”的关键是：意义，消费者的网络，跨越地域界限的生产要素。与二十世纪的经济时“访问中心”，是游戏，今天，商家谁没有大工厂，不是跨国公司的业主，可管理的规则，以达到通过满足全球客户的需求与生产和销售网络，协助新通信技术。今天的经济是日益分散。消费和生产都越来越分散。我们可以想像，美国的生产商可以直接在网上销售自己的产品让消费者在中国的西部地区，而不必花费营业时间在北京或上海。反之，中国的生产商可以绕过纽约提供他们的产品给客户在新英格兰和大西洋中部各州。网络经济提供了的人，无论是在小型和大型企业，以生产和以更低的成本获得消费者的能力。我们作为一个全球性的社会，必须特别强调每个国家可以如何投资和分担风险与人民集体创作的增长。
女士们，先生们，
另一个故事是关于自葡萄牙人发现了一个来自欧洲的可能的海上航线到亚洲的无人问津道路的重生。葡萄牙人没有提供与所运货物的利润率大幅替代贸易路线。虽然你可能会失去一半的货物在途中，你还没有失去你的衬衫。由于香料的需求是铺天盖地，商家海军陆战队重收费每一个人。
女士们，先生们，
经过海的重载运输一直跟着我们到现在为止，并从亚洲陆路到欧洲一直被忽视。如果世界经济欣欣向荣喜欢的好日子，也许没有那么多人有兴趣在寻找生活中的另一种选择。但是，因为这种情况就会出差错，我相信，任何一个国家应该考虑所有的可能性。
女士们先生们，
今天，有两个重大举措，我认为，有很大的潜力，以加速增长和杠杆率带来成网络经济的出现是“增长的品质”。一个是中国主导的“一带一路”（OBOR）计划开发的运输和物流连接包含大约60个国家，其中包括全球GDP的50％左右。而且，另一种是12个太平洋沿岸国家，占全球GDP的40％以上的美国主导的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（TPP）。我还没有看到这两项举措是对立的，而是那种在某一点上，将为亚洲和西方相互的经济效益两个并行的过程。
我们必须克服感知中国和美国作为仅仅是两个对立的政治超级大国的刻板印象。事实上，在过去十年中经济发展的经验告诉我们这两个主要经济体在多大程度上是相互依存的。中国是美国政府债券与$ 1.24万亿美元价值的最大海外持有者。随着2014年的$ 521十亿美元的贸易总额中，美国是中国最大的贸易伙伴。占美国在中国的外国直接投资（FDI）余额为65.77 $美元十亿在2014年底，而中国的外国直接投资在美国估计有达到$ 11.9十亿美元。
鉴于这种相互依存的想法，我认为东南亚亚太这两大经济体 – 的两大举措之间坐在必须特别强调如何加强与同行的相互经济利益的区域。对于东南亚地区在二十一世纪，地缘政治应该是关于如何加强创造财富的网络的跨国家和地区边界伸展的人。
女士们先生们，
让我来告诉你泰国餐厅的最后一个故事。不管师傅多少次试图教他的门生，年轻的男子在保持混合组分犯错误。客户一直在等，饿疯了。一旦客户供应，其中一半出现腹泻之后。这个故事的寓意是其中一个必须做出书面处方权。
女士们先生们，
虽然有些人可能会强调其历史和发展路径方面泰国独特的特点，国家本身无法避免来与二十一世纪的全球性挑战方面。半个世纪以来，泰国经济已逐步融入全球经济。泰国的国内生产总值和出口的外国直接投资在国内的价值已经清楚地表明我们有多远泰国经济的增长一直交织着全球经济的命运。
将最新的宪法草案“使能”全国发展和目前世界上变得更强：在这种情况下，我们应当很简单的问题考虑泰国宪法草案？或者，将最新的宪法草案为泰国的投资，生产，合作，企业有足够的机构基础设施？
女士们先生们，
由于设置了由最新宪法草案的框架，它是很难预见一个政府，响应人民和二十一世纪的挑战。根据新的草案中，200个座位的上院，或参议院，将通过所谓的“专家”的任命。参议院也将有更大的权力来阻止立法。关于宪法法院，其管辖范围将扩大。法院必须检查的基础上由个人直接提起申诉案件的权力，没有一个实际的争端是由政治机关或其他法院提出的要求。
如果我们考虑到权力的增长和稳定的基础的分离主义，关键的问题，我们应审查是司法权是否会擅闯立法机关/和行政的省份或没有？对于一个政府能够管理的经济免受全球经济放缓，我希望会有司法权力的无过执法。几个国家的经验告诉我们，如果不加以控制，司法审查可以使用不当的“缓兵之计” 因此，反过来，成为阻碍经济策略实现。
女士们先生们，
我相信，为国家创造经济增长和繁荣的基础是在国际社会建立信任。宪法应保护法治，并提供至少言论自由，有利于人民和国际社会之间的经济合作的最低水平。如果是法治没有提供一定程度的信心，贸易和投资不能蓬勃发展。针对过渡和转变，泰国必须重新评估其优势和劣势。国家应找到一种合理的方式，以恢复其政治稳定和经济活力。我只是提出我们应该怎么想的是当今世界现象的方式。
Excellencies, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen,
I must thank you World Policy Institute for providing me an opportunity to share my thought on the challenges that revolve around the economic, regional and global implications of how Thailand will make its way through a period of transition and change.
We all know that no society in the twenty-first century can sustain any form of “progress” in the well-being of its people without at least two basic foundations:
The first one is political stability. The second one is the ability to create economic activities that allow growth and readiness to shift its creativities to sustain wealth.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me tell you the tale of the two cities, which is not written by Charles Dickens. It is the tale of parallel progress of Washington D.C. and Beijing. Each has its own history, pain and loathing. As the years go by, the two cities have been seen as rivals which offers competing models for growth and prosperity.
One is Free Market-Capitalism with the so-called “Open Democracy” as the foundation of its economic model. The other one is State-Led Capitalism with the central control system by one party.
Both of the models have proven to be successful in a very dramatic way from the past to the present. Admitting that the Chinese model was fitting to the change of attitude among the leadership of the country at that time, in parallel with the change of economic model in the West, in which the definition of “free trade” benefits China’s shifting position from a close market to a semi-open market.
But we must admit also that both models are now having to adjust itself to the new reality; the reality of dramatic change in speed and character of technology for industrial production; the change from “a country-based product” to “network of global design, global sourcing,and global production for just one product”. This extraordinary change upends the “normal” internal economic adjustment of the country and made it very difficult to find a simple economic adjustment.
We must recognize that advancement in the wealth management technique and technology also upend the normal linkage between capital and changes in production. However, we probably agree, that one common threat for survival in this present so-called “New Normal” is either you have the ability and willingness to change or you don’t. Thailand, like the other countries, cannot get away from this New Normal in the international context.
Ladies and Gentleman,
There is a tale of a poor English teacher in China who soared to the list of the world’s wealthiest people. He neither built a big factory nor invested in any production facility. But, people paid for his service simply to reach the network of supply and demand on a grand scale. I believe, he must feel thank you to the internet.
Ladies and Gentleman,
Amid the global economic slowdown, the pattern of trade has significantly changed. Due to the development of information technology infrastructure and increasing number of population who is able to access to the internet, e-commerce has become a new engine that sustains growth for both developed and developing economies. According to UNCTAD’s report last year, the value of global business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce in 2013 exceeded $15 trillion USD. While global business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce still accounted for an estimated $1.2 trillion USD, this segment has grown at a rapid pace; especially in the Asia and Oceania region where B2C segment is expected to surge from 20 to 37 percent between 2013 to 2018. Due to the incremental growth of cross-border e-commerce trade, international postal deliveries of small packets and parcels have risen by 48 percent between 2011 to 2014 globally.
For both Asia and the West, I believe these numbers provide us with clues for the new growth opportunities where “access to networks” is the key: meaning, the networks of consumers and factors of production across geographical boundaries. Unlike the economy of twentieth century when “access to centers” is the rules of the game, today, businessmen who do not have big factories and are not the owners of multinational corporations, can manage to reach and satisfy the needs of their customers worldwide through networks of production and distribution with an assist of the new communication technology. Today’s economy is increasingly decentralized. Consumption and production are more and more dispersed. We could imagine that an American producers can sell their products online directly to consumers in the western part of China without having to spend business hours in Beijing or Shanghai. Vice versa, a Chinese producer can bypass New York to offer their products to customers in New England and Mid-Atlantic states. The network economy has provided the people, both in small and large businesses, with the ability to produce and access to consumers at lower costs. We, as a global community, must put special emphasis on how each country can invest and share risk with the people to create growth collectively.
Ladies and Gentleman,
Another tale is about the rebirth of a road that nobody cares since the Portuguese discovered a possible sea route from Europe to Asia. The Portuguese did offer an alternative trade route with substantial margins for the goods carried. Although you might lose half of the cargoes on the way, you still did not lose your shirt. Since the demand for spices were overwhelming, the merchant marines heavily charge everybody.
Ladies and Gentleman,
The heavy-load transport through the sea has been with us till now, and the land routes from Asia to Europe have been neglected. If the world’s economy is thriving like the good old days, probably, not so many people would be interested in finding an alternative in life. But, since the situation goes awry, I believe, any country should consider all possibilities.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Today, there are two major initiatives that, I think, have great potential to accelerate growth and leverage “quality of growth” that brought into being by the emergence of network economy. One is the China-led “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) plan to develop transport and logistics connectivity encompassed some 60 countries, which include about 50 percent of the world’s GDP. And, the other is the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) between 12 Pacific Rim countries, which account for more than 40 percent of the world’s GDP. I have not seen these two initiatives as antagonistic, but rather a kind of two parallel processes that, at a certain point, will create mutual economic benefits for Asia and the West.
We must overcome the stereotype that perceive China and the US as merely the two opposing political superpowers. In reality, the economic development during the past decade has shown us how far these two major economies are interdependent. China is the largest foreign holder of US government securities with $1.24 trillion USD worth. With the total trade volume of $521 billion USD in 2014, the US is China’s biggest trade partner. Total US foreign direct investment (FDI) in China stood at $65.77 billion USD at the end of 2014, while the Chinese FDI in the US is estimated to have reach $11.9 billion USD.
Given this interdependence in mind, I believe Southeast Asia- the region that sits in between the two great initiatives of the two major economies- must put special emphasis on how to enhance the mutual economic benefits with its counterparts. For Southeast Asia in the twenty-first century, the geopolitics should be about how to reinforce the networks of wealth creation for the people that stretch across national and regional borders.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me tell you the last tale about a Thai restaurant. No matter how many times the master chef tries to teach his protege, the young man keeps making mistakes in mixing the ingredients. Customers are kept waiting, hungry and mad. Once the customers are served, half of them get diarrhea afterward. The moral of this tale is one must make the written recipe right.
Ladies and gentlemen,
While some people may underline the unique characteristics of Thailand in terms of its history and developmental path, the country itself cannot avoid to come to terms with the global challenges of the twenty-first century. For half a century, the Thai economy has incrementally integrated into global economy. Values of Thailand’s exports per GDP and FDI in the country have shown us clearly how far the growth of Thai economy has been interwoven with the fate of global economy.
Against this context, we shall consider Thailand’s draft constitution with a very simple question: will the latest draft constitution “enable” the country to grow and become stronger in the present world? Or, will the latest draft constitution provide Thailand with a sufficient institutional infrastructure for investment, production, cooperation, and businesses?
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Due to the framework set out by the latest draft constitution, it is difficult to foresee a government that is responsive to the people and the challenges of the twenty-first century. According to the new draft, the 200-seat upper house, or Senate, will be appointed by the so-called “experts”. The Senate will also have greater powers to block legislation. Regarding the Constitutional Court, its scope of jurisdiction will be expanded. The Court will have the power to examine cases based on petitions filed directly by individuals, without the requirement that an actual dispute being brought by political organs or other courts.
If we consider the doctrine of separation of powers as the foundation for growth and stability, the critical issue that we shall examine is whether the judicial power will trespass the provinces of legislature/ and executive or not? For a government to be able to manage the economy against the global slowdown, I do hope that there will be no over-enforcement of the judicial power. Experiences of several countries show us that, if unchecked, judicial review can be inappropriately used as “delaying tactic”; thus, in turn, become an impediment to economic policy implementation.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I believe that the foundation for the country to create growth and prosperity is to build trust in the global community. The constitution shall protect the rule of law and provide at least a minimum level of freedom of speech that facilitates economic cooperation between the people and the global community. Trade and investment cannot flourish if there is no certain degree of confidence provided by the rule of law. Against the transition and change, Thailand must reevaluate its strength and weakness. The country shall find a sensible way to regain its political stability and economic dynamism. I have only proposed the way of how should we think of the phenomena that is the world today.
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